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Тартуские прогнозы-2014
Университет Тарту опубликовал очередной сборник прогнозов о России в наступившем году (сайт на эстонском, но там понятные ссылки на прогнозы по годам. Вот прямая ссылка на pdf файл прогнозов-2014 на английском). Там много знакомых авторов.
Меня попросили написать, что будет с образованием. Написал на пять страниц.
Вот мои выводы:
The reforms of education and science pronounced in the 2013 will go on by cautious steps in 2014, as the authorities will try to keep the inevitable protests low. There will be some show cases of the “manual steering” with some university rector or regional head of educational administration fired, but the general policy of cutting the educational budget will be continued. The protests will not rise to a high number of protesters on the streets, but they will be more inventive, using investigative technic and exposing wrongdoings of the bureaucrats to the wider audience (mostly through social networks that will continue to increase their influence). School teachers will continue to be the least organized and the most dependent part of the educational community, but the emergence of some leaders (probably, independent trade union) may be expected among them.
Меня попросили написать, что будет с образованием. Написал на пять страниц.
Вот мои выводы:
The reforms of education and science pronounced in the 2013 will go on by cautious steps in 2014, as the authorities will try to keep the inevitable protests low. There will be some show cases of the “manual steering” with some university rector or regional head of educational administration fired, but the general policy of cutting the educational budget will be continued. The protests will not rise to a high number of protesters on the streets, but they will be more inventive, using investigative technic and exposing wrongdoings of the bureaucrats to the wider audience (mostly through social networks that will continue to increase their influence). School teachers will continue to be the least organized and the most dependent part of the educational community, but the emergence of some leaders (probably, independent trade union) may be expected among them.